Environmental modelling : an uncertain future? : an by Keith Beven PDF

By Keith Beven

ISBN-10: 020393248X

ISBN-13: 9780203932483

ISBN-10: 0415457599

ISBN-13: 9780415457590

ISBN-10: 0415463025

ISBN-13: 9780415463027

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What additional data could be collected? What sorts of uncertainties are associated with the data? org. How to make predictions 2 3 4 5 23 Define the modelling approach to be used. What model concepts are consistent with the context of the problem and the stakeholders’ understanding of the system? Will the available model(s) provide the predictions required? Should more than one competing model structure be considered? ) Set up the model(s) carefully, including making basic consistency checks on the available data.

It is not necessary to make such strong realist claims for quantitative theorising about environmental systems, which will be necessarily incomplete, often at least partially based on empirical expressions and recognised as approximate. The important point is that precise deductions can be drawn from precisely defined assumptions and premises, regardless of whether those assumptions actually apply to any real system. Common sense suggests, of course, that it is more valuable to explore sets of assumptions that have some relationship to real environmental systems rather than those that do not!

The surface described by such a measure in the model space is then generally called the response surface of the model. It is then readily seen that choosing an optimal parameter set is equivalent to mapping the system to a single point in the model space, at a peak in the response surface (for maximising a performance or likelihood measure). Optimisation methods are designed to try to find the parameter set at the global peak for the performance measure (or lowest point for a minimisation problem) on what might be a very complex surface.

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Environmental modelling : an uncertain future? : an introduction to techniques for uncertainty estimation in environmental prediction by Keith Beven


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