Download e-book for kindle: Patterns of Speculation: A Study in Observational by Bertrand M. Roehner

By Bertrand M. Roehner

ISBN-10: 0521802636

ISBN-13: 9780521802635

The most target of this e-book is to teach that at the back of the bewildering range of old speculative episodes, it's attainable to discover hidden regularities. Speculative bubbles require the examine of assorted episodes to ensure that a comparative viewpoint to be received and the research built during this booklet follows a couple of uncomplicated yet unconventional principles. accordingly, the writer demonstrates how many of the simple strategies of dynamical process conception, akin to the notions of impulse reaction, response occasions and frequency research, play an instrumental position in describing and predicting speculative habit.

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Additional info for Patterns of Speculation: A Study in Observational Econophysics

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Other milestones were my encounters with Eugene Stanley in February 1998 and with Yi-Cheng Zhang in December 1998. 7 The future of econophysics It is almost as difficult to predict the future of econophysics as it is to forecast the evolution of stock markets. As a matter of fact the two questions may well be related in some way. Institutionalized econophysics arose in the strong bull market of the mid 1990s and, not surprisingly at such a moment, its first topics of interest were in relation to financial markets.

Like economics meteorology is of complexity level C4; as a matter of fact obtaining an accurate model of the interaction of air and water masses on a world-wide basis is an almost impossible task. 1(b). 1(a)) N-identical body problems with interaction between nearest neighbors Interaction between N spins (ferromagnetism Ising model) Interaction between nucleons in complex nuclei Interaction within a population of bacteria belonging to the same species Interaction between N grain markets N-identical body problems with a long-range interaction Interaction between N neurons of same type Interaction between N similar investors in equity markets N-non identical body problems (several interactions) Interaction of air and water masses (meteorology) Interaction between N genes (morphogenesis) Interaction between different kinds of neurons in the brain Interaction between N words (linguistics) Interactions in a colony of bees or ants Interaction between N sectors of an economy (macroeconomics) Interaction between N national economies (international trade) Interaction between various kinds of investors in equity markets Interaction between states (international relations) Notes: In the present classification complexity is understood from a mathematical perspective.

Allais (Nobel prize in 1988). This striking contrast emphasizes the fact that observation and experimental evidence have a completely different status in physics and economics. It is true that (quasi-) experimental research in economics is more difficult to conduct than in physics, but this Conclusion 23 should rather encourage us to devote more time, energy and patience to such research. 2 “Modest goals” Throughout its history, confronted as it was with the expectations of governments, traders and investors, economics has had a tendency to take up global problems and to develop predictive models.

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Patterns of Speculation: A Study in Observational Econophysics by Bertrand M. Roehner

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