By Carlo Schaerf, David Carlton
This quantity includes the lawsuits of the 3rd Castiglioncello overseas convention on "Nuclear Arsenals relief - views and results" which came about in Livorno, Italy, from 22 to twenty-five September 1989.
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ABM test ranges, however, have traditionally been used to develop penetration aids. These increase the buffer time before an effective ABM system can be deployed by the other side. There is no reason for testing of penetration aids to stop, or for the 'instrumentation radars' at the test ranges not to continue to function. Knowledge gained in this way can be used to render the zero-ABM regime more robust. A Ban on Anti-Satellite Testing and on Space Weapons The SDI programme launched by Reagan in 1983 promised unachievable goals in effectiveness (not a single warhead should be able to strike the United States or its allies in case of an all-out Soviet missile launch), but also would have had to work against at least the present 10 000 Soviet strategic missile warheads (and probably against many more that would have been built to counter the SDI, if deployed).
Nevertheless, there will be concern that the START regime will not last forever, and thus about 'breakout' by the other side. It is, in fact, for this reason that the present writer recommends measured development of the single-warhead Midgetman missile, and the deployment of a few hundred in existing Minuteman silos, replacing the MIRVed missiles. The existence of the fully developed Midgetman for silo development would then allow its replication in case of a renewed arms race with the Soviet Union.
Secondly, the treaty's influence on stability will depend not so much on its provisions as such, but on the structure, composition and postures of the strategic forces of the two powers under the ceilings and sub-ceilings at present agreed upon. In particular, if both sides emphasise powerful multi-warhead systems, leading to the concentration of warheads on a small number of launching platforms, launchers and delivery vehicles, and to a reduction in the proportion of mobile, high-survivable means, the stability of the strategic balance may be weakened.
Reducing Nuclear Arsenals by Carlo Schaerf, David Carlton