By Frank P. Harvey
This paintings presents a framework for organizing and comparing study on superpower competition and nuclear deterrence. Arguing that earlier reviews of rational selection and deterrence conception usually are not convincing, Frank Harvey constructs a collection of empirical exams of rational deterrence concept to light up styles of interplay among rival nuclear powers. He analyzes the main issue administration innovations utilized by the U.S. and the Soviet Union in 28 post-war crises and isolates components that advertise or inhibit escalation of those crises. this knowledge set serves because the foundation for settling on styles of reaction whilst one nuclear nation is threatened through one other. The ebook deals new instructions for trying out that emphasize a extra unified method of idea development and assesses the feasibility of other classes of motion to avoid escalation of destiny disputes characterised by means of nuclear competition.
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Additional resources for The Future's Back: Nuclear Rivalry, Deterrence Theory, and Crisis Stability After the Cold War
In many cases, coercive tactics like deterrence may actually provoke hostile reactions from an opponent faced with domestic pressures (Lebow 1981; Lebow and Stein 1987). Studies by Lebow and Stein indicate that even in cases where deterrence was executed correctly (that is the commitment was communicated, the credibility of the counterthreat was clear, resolve was unquestioned), the retaliatory threat failed, and the opponent attacked (for example, the Yom Kippur War, 1973; the Falkland Islands War, 1982).
Unfortunately, notwithstanding cases in which decision makers have correctly interpreted their opponents' signals, have been conscious of the potential for decision pathologies, and have ultimately chosen the appropriate course of action (as in the Cuban missile crisis), the image of a room filled with wide-eyed, trembling, coffee-drinking smokers remains a common one in much of the literature. But the assertion that decision makers are very likely to fall prey to subconscious pressures and less likely to decide rationally requires a more compelling defence.
EVALUATING PROGRESS: RELIABILITY AND VALIDITY At this point it is appropriate to identify criteria for evaluation of the above-noted studies. The most straightforward approach is to focus on validity and reliability with regard to case selection. These are standard criteria for the assessment of any aggregate analysis. Validity "Validity" refers to accuracy, that is, fidelity to a theory and its concepts during the process of testing. This criterion encompasses several more specific concerns related to case selection, operationalization, and research design.
The Future's Back: Nuclear Rivalry, Deterrence Theory, and Crisis Stability After the Cold War by Frank P. Harvey